Njengezinto zokusetshenziswa zokukhiqiza i-polyester, ukuguquguquka kwentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe kunquma ngqo izindleko ze-polyester. Eminyakeni emithathu edlule, izingxabano zezwe nezepolitiki zibe ngenye yezinto ezibaluleke kakhulu ezithinta amanani kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe. Muva nje, isimo sempi yeRussia ne-Ukraine siphenduke ijika, futhi uwoyela ongahluziwe waseRussia kulindeleke ukuthi ubuyele emakethe yamazwe ngamazwe, okunomthelela omkhulu emananini kawoyela wamazwe ngamazwe!
Uwoyela uzokwehla ufike ku-$60?
Ngokusho kwemibiko yangaphambilini ye-CCTV, ngomhlaka-12 kuNhlolanja, ngesikhathi saseMpumalanga ye-US, uMongameli wase-US uTrump waxhumana noMengameli waseRussia uVladimir Putin kanye noMengameli wase-Ukraine uVolodymyr Zelensky ngocingo. Izinhlangothi zombili zavumelana “ngokubambisana eduze” ekuqedeni ingxabano phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine nokuthumela amaqembu azo “ukuze aqale izingxoxo ngokushesha.”
I-Citi ithe embikweni wangoFebhuwari 13 ukuthi uhulumeni kaTrump usebenza ohlelweni lokuthula lokuzama ukuxazulula ingxabano phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine. Lolu hlelo lungafaka phakathi ukuphoqa iRussia ne-Ukraine ukuthi bafinyelele esivumelwaneni sokuqeda umbango ngaphambi kuka-Ephreli 20, 2025. Uma luphumelela, lolu hlelo lungaholela ekususweni kwezinye izijeziso eRussia, kushintshe ukuguquguquka kokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo semakethe kawoyela yomhlaba wonke.
Ukugeleza kukawoyela waseRussia kushintshe kakhulu selokhu kwaqubuka ingxabano. Ngokusho kwezilinganiso zeCiti, uwoyela waseRussia wengeze cishe amathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-70 zamathani. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, amanye amazwe afana ne-India andise kakhulu isidingo sawo sikawoyela waseRussia, akhula ngamabhareli angu-800,000 ngosuku kanye namabhareli ayizigidi ezimbili ngosuku, ngokulandelana.
Uma amazwe aseNtshonalanga enciphisa izigwebo eRussia futhi ezibophezele ekulungiseni ubudlelwano bezohwebo, ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela eRussia kanye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunganda kakhulu. Lokhu kuzoshintsha kakhulu indlela yokuhlinzekwa kukawoyela emhlabeni jikelele.
Ngasohlangothini lokunikezwa kwempahla, izijeziso zamanje ezibekwe yi-United States zishiye cishe amabhareli ayizigidi ezingu-30 kawoyela waseRussia evaleleke olwandle.
I-Citi ikholelwa ukuthi uma uhlelo lokuthula luqhubeka, lo mafutha aphelelwe yisikhathi kanye nokusilela kwamafutha ngenxa yokushintsha kwemizila yokuhweba (cishe imiphongolo eyizigidi eziyi-150-200) kungakhishwa emakethe, okwandisa ingcindezi yokunikezwa.
Ngenxa yalokho, amanani kawoyela eBrent azoba phakathi kuka-$60 no-$65 ngebhareli engxenyeni yesibili ka-2025.
Izinqubomgomo zikaTrump zehlisa intengo kawoyela
Ngaphezu kwesici saseRussia, uTrump ungomunye wabacindezelekile ngokwehla kwentengo kawoyela.
Ucwaningo lwababhange abangu-26 olwenziwe yiHaynes Boone LLC ngasekupheleni konyaka odlule lukhombisile ukuthi babelindele ukuthi amanani e-WTI azokwehla afike ku-$58.62 ngebhareli ngo-2027, cishe u-$10 ngebhareli ngaphansi kwamazinga amanje, okuphakamisa ukuthi amabhange alungiselela ukuthi amanani ehle ngaphansi kuka-$60 maphakathi nesikhathi esisha sikaTrump. UTrump wakhankasela ngesithembiso sokuphoqa abakhiqizi bakawoyela be-shale ukuthi bandise umkhiqizo, kodwa akucaci ukuthi uhlose yini ukufeza leso sithembiso njengoba abakhiqizi bakawoyela base-US beyizinkampani ezizimele ezinquma amazinga okukhiqiza ikakhulukazi ngokusekelwe kwezomnotho.
UTrump ufuna ukulawula ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo kawoyela e-US ngokucindezela amanani kawoyela, i-Citi ilinganisela ukuthi uma amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe e-Brent ehla afike ku-$60 ngebhareli kwikota yesine ka-2025 (amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe e-WTI angama-$57 ngebhareli), futhi amaphrimiyamu emikhiqizo kawoyela ehlala emazingeni amanje, izindleko zokusetshenziswa kwemikhiqizo kawoyela e-US zizokwehla cishe ngama-$85 billion unyaka nonyaka. Lokho cishe kungamaphesenti angu-0.3 e-GDP yase-US.
Iyini ithonya emakethe yezindwangu?
Isikhathi sokugcina i-New York crude oil futures (WTI) yehla ngaphansi kwama-$60 kwakungoMashi 29, 2021, lapho intengo ye-New York crude oil futures yehla yaya ku-$59.60 / umphongolo. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, i-Brent crude futures yahweba ngama-$63.14 ngomphongolo ngosuku. Ngaleso sikhathi, i-polyester POY yayicishe ibe yi-7510 yuan/ton, iphakeme ngisho nangaphezu kwe-7350 yuan/ton yamanje.
Kodwa-ke, ngaleso sikhathi, ochungechungeni lwemboni ye-polyester, i-PX yayiseyinkulu kunawo wonke, intengo yaqhubeka nokuba namandla, futhi yathatha iningi lenzuzo yochungechunge lwemboni, futhi isimo samanje siye sashintsha kakhulu.
Ngokombono womehluko kuphela, ngomhlaka-14 kuNhlolanja, inkontileka kawoyela ongahluziwe waseNew York i-futures 03 yavala ku-70.74 yuan/ton, uma ifuna ukwehla ibe ngamadola angu-60, kunomehluko wamadola angaba yi-10.
Ngemva kokuqala kwale ntwasahlobo, yize intengo yentambo ye-polyester ikhuphuke ngezinga elithile, intshiseko yamabhizinisi okuluka ukuthenga izinto zokusetshenziswa iseyinto evamile, ayikashukunyiswa, futhi isimo sengqondo sokulinda nokubona siyagcinwa, futhi uhlu lwezinto ze-polyester luyaqhubeka nokuqongelela.
Uma uwoyela ongahluziwe ungena emgudwini owehlayo, uzojulisa kakhulu amathemba emakethe ngezinto zokusetshenziswa ezingavuthiwe, futhi izinqolobane ze-polyester zizoqhubeka nokuqongelela. Kodwa-ke, ngakolunye uhlangothi, isizini yendwangu ngoMashi iyeza, inani lama-oda liye landa, futhi kunesidingo esiqinile sezinto zokusetshenziswa ezingavuthiwe, esingase sikwazi ukuqeda umthelela wowoyela ongahluziwe ophansi ngezinga elithile.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Feb-25-2025