Izindaba zenethiwekhi ye-China Cotton: Imboni kakotini yase-United States yabezindaba eyaziwa kakhulu "Imagazini yabalimi bakakotini" maphakathi no-December 2023 yabonisa ukuthi indawo yase-United States yokutshala ukotini ngo-2024 kulindeleke ukuthi ibe amahektha ayizigidi ezingu-10.19, uma kuqhathaniswa noMnyango Wezolimo wase-United States. Ezolimo ngo-Okthoba 2023, isibikezelo sangempela sendawo etshaliwe sehle ngamahektha angaba ngu-42,000, ukwehla ngo-0.5%, futhi alukho ushintsho olubalulekile uma luqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule.

Ukubuyekezwa kokukhiqizwa kukakotini wase-US ngo-2023

Ngonyaka odlule, abalimi bakakotini base-US babenethemba ngamathemba okukhiqiza, amanani kakotini ayemukelekile, futhi umswakama womhlabathi ngaphambi kokutshala wawanele, futhi izifunda eziningi ezikhiqiza ukotini bekulindeleke ukuba ziqale kahle inkathi yokutshala.Nokho, imvula enkulu eCalifornia naseTexas yabangela izikhukhula, amanye amasimu kakotini aguqulelwa kwezinye izilimo, futhi ukushisa okwedlulele kwasehlobo kwabangela ukwehla okukhulu kwesivuno sikakotini, ikakhulukazi eNingizimu-ntshonalanga, okusasele ngaphansi kwesomiso esibi kakhulu emhlabeni. irekhodi ngo-2022. Isilinganiso se-USDA sika-Okthoba samahektha ayizigidi ezingu-10.23 ngonyaka ka-2023 sibonisa ukuthi singakanani isimo sezulu nezinye izici zemakethe ezibe nomthelela ekubikezelweni kokuqala kwamahektha ayizigidi ezingu-11-11.5.

Phenya isimo

Ucwaningo lukhombisa ukuthi ubudlelwano phakathi kukakotini nezintengo zezitshalo ezincintisanayo buzothinta kakhulu izinqumo zokutshala.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphikelelayo, izinkinga zesidingo sikakotini emhlabeni wonke, izindaba zezombusazwe nezezwe, kanye nezindleko zokukhiqiza eziqhubekayo nazo zinomthelela obalulekile.Ngokusekelwe ekuhlaziyweni kwesikhathi eside kobudlelwano bentengo phakathi kukakotini nommbila, i-acreage kakotini yase-US kufanele ibe cishe amahektha ayizigidi ezingu-10.8.Ngokwekusasa likakotini lamanje le-ICE elingu-77 cents/phawundi, ikusasa lommbila ngamadola angu-5/bushel, intengo yamanje kunokunwetshwa kukakotini walo nyaka iyathandeka, kodwa intengo kakotini yamasenti angu-77 iyakhanga ngempela kubalimi bakakotini, isifunda sikakotini ngokuvamile sibonisa lokho. inani lekusasa likakotini lizinzile ngaphezu kwamasenti angama-80 ukuze kwandiswe izinhloso zokutshala.

Ucwaningo lubonisa ukuthi ngo-2024, indawo yokutshala ukotini eningizimu-mpumalanga ye-United States ingamahektha ayizigidi ezingu-2.15, ukwehla ngo-8%, futhi indawo yezifunda ngeke inyuke, futhi ngokuvamile izinzile futhi yehlile.Isifunda esiseNingizimu Emaphakathi kulindeleke ukuthi sibe amahektha ayizigidi eziyi-1.65, kanti iningi lezifundazwe liyisicaba noma liphansi kancane, kanti yiTennessee kuphela ebona ukunyuka okuncane.Indawo eseningizimu-ntshonalanga yayingamahektha ayizigidi ezingu-6.165, yehle ngo-0.8% unyaka nonyaka, nesomiso esikhulu ngo-2022 kanye nokushisa okwedlulele ngo-2023 kusenomthelela omubi ekukhiqizweni kukakotini, kodwa isivuno kulindeleke ukuthi siphinde sibuyele emuva.Isifunda esisentshonalanga, esingamahektha angu-225,000, sehle cishe ngamaphesenti angu-6 kusukela ngonyaka odlule, nezinkinga zamanzi okunisela kanye nezintengo zikakotini ezithinta ukutshala.

Onyakeni wesibili olandelanayo, amanani kakotini nezinye izinto ezingalawuleki ziholele ekutheni abaphendulayo bangazethembi ngokugcwele okulindelwe ukutshala esikhathini esizayo, abanye abaphendula baze bakholelwa ukuthi i-acreage kakotini yase-US ingase yehle ibe ngamahektha ayizigidi ezingu-9.8, kuyilapho abanye bekholelwa ukuthi i-acreage lingakhuphuka libe ngamahektha ayizigidi eziyi-10.5.Inhlolovo ye-acreage ye-Cotton Farmers Magazine ibonisa izimo zemakethe kusukela ngasekupheleni kukaNovemba kuya ekuqaleni kukaDisemba 2023, ngesikhathi isivuno sikakotini sase-US sasisaqhubeka.Ngokusekelwe eminyakeni edlule, ukunemba kwesibikezelo kuphezulu uma kuqhathaniswa, okuhlinzeka imboni ngokudla okuwusizo kokucabanga ngaphambi kokukhululwa kwendawo ehlosiwe ye-NCC kanye nedatha esemthethweni ye-USDA.

Umthombo: I-China Cotton Information Centre