Kusukela ekupheleni kukaJanuwari kuya maphakathi noFebhuwari, ama-ICE cotton futures aqale ukukhula okusheshayo, inkontileka enkulu ikhuphuka isuka cishe kumasenti angu-82 yaya ngaphezu kwamasenti angu-96. Phakathi nalesi sikhathi, bekungekho zici ezikhethekile ezinhle emakethe yekotoni, kodwa izisekelo kanye nohlangothi olukhulu kwakuyizindaba ezingathandeki kakhulu. Ngaphansi kwesizinda sokwehla okuvamile kwamasheya nezimpahla zase-US, kanye nokwehla okukhulu kokulindela ukuncishiswa kwenzalo yase-US, ama-cotton futures avele egagasini lamanani akhuphukayo “e-Lone Wolf”, okwenza abahlanganyeli bemakethe bazizwe bemangalisa.
Abahlaziyi bekusasa base-US bathi imakethe kakotini yakamuva ayinazo izici ezicacile zokukhula, kuyilapho izimali ziqhubeka nokukhulisa i-pan, ivolumu yokuhweba kanye nezikhundla ezivulekile zikhishwa ngosuku, lokhu kusebenza okungavamile kunzima ukukuchaza, mhlawumbe izimali ezifundile imakethe ayiqondi isimo. Kuze kube nguFebhuwari 18, iNational Cotton Council yase-United States (NCC) ikhiphe inhloso yayo yokutshala indawo kakotini. Ngokusho kocwaningo lwe-NCC, inhloso kakotini wase-US ngo-2024 ingamahektha ayizigidi ezingu-9.8, ukwehla ngo-3.7% kusukela ngonyaka odlule, okuhluke kakhulu esibikezelweni sangaphambilini se-Cotton Farmers Magazine kanye ne-USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. Ngaphambilini, abahlaziyi bangaphandle bavame ukukholelwa ukuthi intengo kakotini ikhuphuke ngokushesha kakhulu, ngokombono wegrafu yobuchwepheshe ibisondele endaweni ephezulu kakhulu emakethe, kulindeleke ukuthi ibe nokumelana okuqinile ngo-95-96 US. Ngomhlaka-20 kuNhlolanja, ngenxa yezici ezinhle ezingalindelekile zokwehla kwendawo yenhloso ye-NCC e-United States, ikusasa le-ICE lehle kakhulu ngemva kokuvulwa kukaNhlolanja 20, futhi kusukela ntambama kaNhlolanja 20, selihle ngamaphuzu angaphezu kuka-200, okuphansi kakhulu kwehle kwaba ngamasenti angu-92.
Ngokusho kwe-USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, ukukhiqizwa kanye nesidingo somhlaba wonke kuzophindeka kabili ngo-2024/25, futhi isibikezelo sesidingo sikakotini sinethemba elikhulu. Ngokuthuthuka komnotho omkhulu, ukugaywa kwempahla yezimboni kanye nokwanda kokutholakala kukakotini, ukusetshenziswa kukakotini kulindeleke ukuthi kwehle futhi kubuye, futhi amanani kakotini kulindeleke ukuthi akhuphuke kancane. Kodwa-ke, yize i-NCC ilindele ukuthi indawo kakotini yase-United States yehle, amanani kakotini akhuphuke kakhulu ngemuva kokukhishwa kocwaningo, futhi amathuba okwanda kwendawo yokutshala ewusizo esikhathini esizayo makhulu. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngokuthuthukiswa kwesimo sezulu endaweni ekhiqiza ukotini yase-United States, amathuba okushiywa kukakotini wase-United States kulo nyaka azoba ngaphansi kakhulu kuneminyaka emibili edlule, ngakho-ke amathuba okwanda okukhulu ekukhiqizweni kukakotini wase-United States aphezulu impela. Ngokusho kwesibikezelo samanje se-USDA Outlook Forum, ukukhiqizwa kukakotini wase-US ngonyaka ozayo kulindeleke ukuthi kube amabhali ayizigidi ezingu-16, aphezulu kakhulu kunamabhali ayizigidi ezingu-12.4 kulo nyaka. Ngokusho kombiko we-NCC we-acreage of intention, ukukhiqizwa kukakotini e-US kulindeleke ukuthi kube amabhele ayizigidi ezingu-14.6, okuphakeme kakhulu kunalo nyaka.
Endabeni yokutholakala kukakotini, ikakhulukazi ukwanda kokunikezwa kukakotini e-United States, izinga lapho isidingo sikakotini singabuya khona liyisihluthulelo esikhulu ekuthambekeleni kwentengo kakotini. Ngisho noma imvelo enkulu ithuthuka, kuzothatha isikhathi eside ukuthi isidingo sibuye. Kusukela esimweni samuva nje, yize ukugaywa kwempahla esezansi sekuphelile, ukugcwaliswa kabusha kweketanga lezimboni sekuqalile ukubonakala, kodwa kulesi sigaba akukwazi ukusekela intengo kakotini ephezulu kangaka. Ngokusho kwempendulo yemakethe yangaphandle, imakethe yomhlaba wonke yezindawo zikakotini ngesikhathi seMkhosi WaseNtwasahlobo ilula kakhulu, izinga lokubuza ngefektri liphansi kakhulu kunentengo kakotini, futhi intengo yentambo yomhlaba wonke ayihambisananga nesivinini samanani kakotini, uma inzuzo yezimboni emasontweni ambalwa ezayo ingenakuqinisekiswa, intengo kakotini ephezulu ekugcineni izoba nzima ukuyigcina.
Umthombo: Inethiwekhi Kakotini YaseShayina
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Feb-21-2024